MSNBC
MSNBC 21 May 2020

Study Finds Early Intervention Key To Blocking Coronavirus Spread

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Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University School of Public Health, talks with Rachel Maddow about how the doubling nature of the spread of coronavirus makes it crucially important to act quickly in the early stages of an outbreak before cases balloon. Aired on 5/21/2020.


As the nation's daily death toll tops 1,000 for four days in a row, more than 500 health experts are urging the Trump administration to enact a nationwide closure. While schools grapple with reopening plans, a Tennessee district that had been first to reopen is reporting a positive case.
As the nation's daily death toll tops 1,000 for four days in a row, more than 500 health experts are urging the Trump administration to enact a nationwide closure. While schools grapple with reopening plans, a Tennessee district that had been first to reopen is reporting a positive case.
A university in Germany held a series of crowded pop concerts to find out how attendees could spread the coronavirus and whether large events can be safely resumed. Some 1,500 volunteers attended the first of the indoor concerts of German singer Tim Bendzko in the city of Leipzig. The well-known singer agreed to give three performances, allowing scientists to try out different social-distancing scenarios for each concert. Volunteers were equipped with contact tracers to record their movement and track the path of the aerosols they emitted. Fluorescent disinfectants were used to show the scientists which surfaces people touched the most. The researchers from the University Medical Center in Halle expect the results of their study in four to six weeks. Most events with big crowds have been put on hold around the world due to the coronavirus pandemic. In Germany, large gatherings are banned until at least November.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that herd immunity was "not a fundamental strategy" being used to combat the coronavirus pandemic and stressed the importance of efforts to prevent the spread of further infections. Aired on 09/2/2020.

… show captions ↓
WHAT YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUES
HAVE FOUND.
>> I THINK YOU SUMMARIZED IT
VERY WELL AND I THINK THE
IMPORTANT THING THAT WE’RE
REALLY TRYING TO DO HERE IS NOT
JUST LOOK RED TORO TO SPECTIVELY
USE THE INFORMATION HOW WE GO
FORWARD AND HAVE TO BE VEHICLE
LANT WITH THIS VIRUS.
IT’S REALLY VITAL WE ACTIVELY
SEEK IT OUT IN OUR COMMUNITIES,
THAT WE MONITOR WHAT IS
HAPPENING WITH THE TRANSMISSION
OF THE VIRUS IN COMMUNITIES AS
WE LOOSEN RESTRICTIONS AND
REOPEN THE ECONOMY FURTHER AND
FURTHER TO MAKE SURE WE DON’T
HAVE FLAIRUPS AND IF WE IDENTIFY
GROWTH IN CASES, WE HAVE TO
CLAMP DOWN QUICKLY AND RESPOND
MORE QUICKLY BECAUSE AS YOU
SAID, IF YOU GET THE VIRUS WHEN
THE OUTBREAK IS YOUNG, WHEN IT’S
IN THE EARLY STAGES, YOU’RE
GOING TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF
DEATHS THAT WILL ACCRUE OVER
TIME.
>> CAN YOU PUT A LITTLE MORE
MEAT ON THE BONES OF THAT BASIC
IDEA?
I FEEL LIKE IT MAKES SENSE JUST
WHEN I THINK ABOUT IT
QUALITATIVELY THAT GETTING IT
EARLY IS BETTER AND IF YOU GET
IT EARLY, IT DOESN’T GROW AS
LARGE.
WHAT I WAS SHOCKED BY IS THE
QUANTITATIVE DIFFERENCE THAT
JUST ONE WEEK, JUST A FEW DAYS
WOULD MAKE SUCH A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE WHO ULTIMATELY DIED OVER
A COUPLE -- OVER A COUPLE OF
MONTHS.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN JUST IN MAY LEAN
TERMS WHY THE NUMBERS ARE
AFFECTED IN JUST A FEW DAYS
RESPONSE TIME.
>> IT IS STAGGERING.
IT’S IMPORTANT TO QUANTIFY SO
YOU SEE HOW STRONG THAT RESPONSE
IS.
WHEN YOU’RE DEALING WITH THE
GROWTH OF A VIRUS IN A FULLY
SUSCEPTIBLE POPULATION, IT’S
GOING THROUGH A DOUBLING
PROCESS.
IT’S GROWING.
IT’S VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THE DOUBLING PROCESSES CAN
REALLY SNEAK UP AT YOU.
THEY SEEM TO START SMALL AND
INSIGNIFICANT AND DON’T BE OF
MUCH CONFIDENCE BUT CAN SWELL
AND OVERWHELM YOU LIKE A WAVE.
MANY EXAMPLES THAT YOU’LL HEAR
IN THE MATHEMATICS WHERE THEY
WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN IT VERY
SIMPLY, ONE OF MY FAVORITE IS
THIS IDEA YOU HAVE A POND AND
THERE IS THIS INVEIGHASIVE LILY
FLOWER THAT GETS INTO IT AND
EVERY DAY DOUBLES IN SIZE.
LET’S SAY BY DAY 30, THE ENTIRE
POND IS COVERED WITH LILIES.
THE QUESTION IS ON WHAT DAY WAS
IT HALF WAY COVERED WITH LIL
LAYSLAY --
LILIES?
DAY 29, JUST THE DAY BEFORE.
BY JUMPING ON THIS VIRUS
EARLIER, YOU ARE REALLY GOING TO
CIRCUMVENT THAT GROWTH AND
SQUASH IT DOWN AND PROHIBIT THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BE AFFECTED BY
TAKING EARLY ACTION.
IT’S A VERY STRANGE AND
HORRIFYING COMPOUNDING PROCESS
THAT THIS GOES THROUGH BY WHICH
IT’S SPREADING THROUGH A
COMMUNITY.
IT’S REALLY VITAL WE REACH OUT
AND MONITOR WHAT IS GOING ON IN
OUR COMMUNITIES ACTIVELY.
WE CAN’T GET COMPLACENT.
THERE IS A RISK WITH THAT AS WE
MOVE INTO SUMMER AND THE VIRUS
MAY BE SEASONABLE AND LESS
TRANSMISSIBLE DURING SUMMER AND
WE’LL GET COMPLACENT AND FEEL
LIKE WE HAVE THIS THING UNDER
CONTROL.
WE HAVE TO GET IN THIS FOR THE
LONG HAUL AND WE WANT TO KEEP IT
SQUASHED AND REDUCE THE LEVELS
TO A LOW NUMBER OF CASES PER DAY
GOING FORWARD WHILE WE HOLD ON
UNTIL WE CAN GET A VACCINE
THAT’SFECT EFFECTIVE OR EFFECTIV

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