Study Finds Early Intervention Key To Blocking Coronavirus Spread
Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University School of Public Health, talks with Rachel Maddow about how the doubling nature of the spread of coronavirus makes it crucially important to act quickly in the early stages of an outbreak before cases balloon. Aired on 5/21/2020.
As the nation's daily death toll tops 1,000 for four days in a row, more than 500 health experts are urging the Trump administration to enact a nationwide closure. While schools grapple with reopening plans, a Tennessee district that had been first to reopen is reporting a positive case. As the nation's daily death toll tops 1,000 for four days in a row, more than 500 health experts are urging the Trump administration to enact a nationwide closure. While schools grapple with reopening plans, a Tennessee district that had been first to reopen is reporting a positive case. A university in Germany held a series of crowded pop concerts to find out how attendees could spread the coronavirus and whether large events can be safely resumed. Some 1,500 volunteers attended the first of the indoor concerts of German singer Tim Bendzko in the city of Leipzig. The well-known singer agreed to give three performances, allowing scientists to try out different social-distancing scenarios for each concert. Volunteers were equipped with contact tracers to record their movement and track the path of the aerosols they emitted. Fluorescent disinfectants were used to show the scientists which surfaces people touched the most. The researchers from the University Medical Center in Halle expect the results of their study in four to six weeks. Most events with big crowds have been put on hold around the world due to the coronavirus pandemic. In Germany, large gatherings are banned until at least November. Dr. Anthony Fauci said that herd immunity was "not a fundamental strategy" being used to combat the coronavirus pandemic and stressed the importance of efforts to prevent the spread of further infections. Aired on 09/2/2020.
WHAT YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUES HAVE FOUND. >> I THINK YOU SUMMARIZED IT VERY WELL AND I THINK THE IMPORTANT THING THAT WE’RE REALLY TRYING TO DO HERE IS NOT JUST LOOK RED TORO TO SPECTIVELY USE THE INFORMATION HOW WE GO FORWARD AND HAVE TO BE VEHICLE LANT WITH THIS VIRUS. IT’S REALLY VITAL WE ACTIVELY SEEK IT OUT IN OUR COMMUNITIES, THAT WE MONITOR WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE TRANSMISSION OF THE VIRUS IN COMMUNITIES AS WE LOOSEN RESTRICTIONS AND REOPEN THE ECONOMY FURTHER AND FURTHER TO MAKE SURE WE DON’T HAVE FLAIRUPS AND IF WE IDENTIFY GROWTH IN CASES, WE HAVE TO CLAMP DOWN QUICKLY AND RESPOND MORE QUICKLY BECAUSE AS YOU SAID, IF YOU GET THE VIRUS WHEN THE OUTBREAK IS YOUNG, WHEN IT’S IN THE EARLY STAGES, YOU’RE GOING TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT WILL ACCRUE OVER TIME. >> CAN YOU PUT A LITTLE MORE MEAT ON THE BONES OF THAT BASIC IDEA? I FEEL LIKE IT MAKES SENSE JUST WHEN I THINK ABOUT IT QUALITATIVELY THAT GETTING IT EARLY IS BETTER AND IF YOU GET IT EARLY, IT DOESN’T GROW AS LARGE. WHAT I WAS SHOCKED BY IS THE QUANTITATIVE DIFFERENCE THAT JUST ONE WEEK, JUST A FEW DAYS WOULD MAKE SUCH A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ULTIMATELY DIED OVER A COUPLE -- OVER A COUPLE OF MONTHS. CAN YOU EXPLAIN JUST IN MAY LEAN TERMS WHY THE NUMBERS ARE AFFECTED IN JUST A FEW DAYS RESPONSE TIME. >> IT IS STAGGERING. IT’S IMPORTANT TO QUANTIFY SO YOU SEE HOW STRONG THAT RESPONSE IS. WHEN YOU’RE DEALING WITH THE GROWTH OF A VIRUS IN A FULLY SUSCEPTIBLE POPULATION, IT’S GOING THROUGH A DOUBLING PROCESS. IT’S GROWING. IT’S VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE DOUBLING PROCESSES CAN REALLY SNEAK UP AT YOU. THEY SEEM TO START SMALL AND INSIGNIFICANT AND DON’T BE OF MUCH CONFIDENCE BUT CAN SWELL AND OVERWHELM YOU LIKE A WAVE. MANY EXAMPLES THAT YOU’LL HEAR IN THE MATHEMATICS WHERE THEY WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN IT VERY SIMPLY, ONE OF MY FAVORITE IS THIS IDEA YOU HAVE A POND AND THERE IS THIS INVEIGHASIVE LILY FLOWER THAT GETS INTO IT AND EVERY DAY DOUBLES IN SIZE. LET’S SAY BY DAY 30, THE ENTIRE POND IS COVERED WITH LILIES. THE QUESTION IS ON WHAT DAY WAS IT HALF WAY COVERED WITH LIL LAYSLAY -- LILIES? DAY 29, JUST THE DAY BEFORE. BY JUMPING ON THIS VIRUS EARLIER, YOU ARE REALLY GOING TO CIRCUMVENT THAT GROWTH AND SQUASH IT DOWN AND PROHIBIT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE AFFECTED BY TAKING EARLY ACTION. IT’S A VERY STRANGE AND HORRIFYING COMPOUNDING PROCESS THAT THIS GOES THROUGH BY WHICH IT’S SPREADING THROUGH A COMMUNITY. IT’S REALLY VITAL WE REACH OUT AND MONITOR WHAT IS GOING ON IN OUR COMMUNITIES ACTIVELY. WE CAN’T GET COMPLACENT. THERE IS A RISK WITH THAT AS WE MOVE INTO SUMMER AND THE VIRUS MAY BE SEASONABLE AND LESS TRANSMISSIBLE DURING SUMMER AND WE’LL GET COMPLACENT AND FEEL LIKE WE HAVE THIS THING UNDER CONTROL. WE HAVE TO GET IN THIS FOR THE LONG HAUL AND WE WANT TO KEEP IT SQUASHED AND REDUCE THE LEVELS TO A LOW NUMBER OF CASES PER DAY GOING FORWARD WHILE WE HOLD ON UNTIL WE CAN GET A VACCINE THAT’SFECT EFFECTIVE OR EFFECTIV